Simulation № 1
Simulate a Tennis Match
Type the probability that Player 1 wins a single point and run the simulation. We play 1,000 full matches (games with deuces, sets with tiebreaks, best of five) and count how often that tiny edge on each point becomes a win. Player 2's probability of winning a point is whatever is left over.
Parameters
Player 2 gets the remaining 49%.
Scoring is real tennis: games to four points, win by two; sets to six games with a tiebreak at 6–6; the match is best of five sets.
One point51%
→
One game–
→
One set–
→
The match–
How the 1,000 matches ended
Player 1 wins
Player 2 wins
A 51% point is roughly a coin flip, yet across a full match the better player wins far more often than 51% of the time. Long formats let skill surface; short ones leave the outcome to luck. That is why upsets live in early rounds.