Simulation № 3
Distribution Simulation
Each participant is assigned a persistent skill value drawn from a normal distribution. Every round, that skill is added to a fresh luck value, also drawn from a normal distribution — skill plus luck is the score for the round. The table ranks everyone by their average score across the season. Bold participants started with above-average skill.
Try varying the parameters to see how often the most skilled end up on top.
When luck's spread is bigger than skill's, a short season is nearly a lottery. Stretch the rounds out and watch the standings converge toward true skill — the paradox is that you need a long sample before results mean anything.
| Rank | Participant | True skill | Avg. score |
|---|
Bold = started with above-average skill. If skill fully determined outcomes, the bold names would fill the top half exactly.