Harvard Business Review Press
The Succe$$ Equation
Untangling skill and luck in business, sports, and investing — a companion site for the book by Michael J. Mauboussin.
Tennis Sim
If you have a 51% chance of winning a single point, how often will you take the match? Watch a small edge in skill compound.
Try ItPolya Urn Model
A slightly revised version of the classic model. Success that feeds on itself — run it a few times and be surprised.
Try ItDistribution Simulation
Set skill and luck values, then see how the season plays out. How often do the most skilled end up on top?
Watch ItColonel Blotto
Try your hand at the classic game theory challenge. Divide your troops among the battlefields and outwit a randomized opponent.
Play ItMind Reader
See if you can outwit the computer as it tries to guess what you will enter next. A remake of Claude Shannon's 1953 machine.
Play ItVideos
Clips related to the book's content, including the two-part introduction to the success equation.
Watch ThemWhere an activity sits on the continuum tells you how much its outcomes can teach you — and how big a sample you need before results reveal skill. Chapter 4 of the book places sports, markets, and business along this line.